Global Economy: Focus On The Development Direction Of Textile And Clothing Trade In Emerging Economies

Since this year, risk factors such as the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the tightening of the international financial environment, the weakening of terminal demand in major developed economies in the United States and Europe, and stubborn inflation have led to a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. With the rise of global real interest rates, the recovery prospects of emerging economies have frequently suffered setbacks, financial risks have been accumulating, and trade improvement has become more sluggish. According to the data from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), in the first four months of 2023, the export trade volume of goods of Asian emerging economies other than China continued to grow negatively year-on-year and the decline deepened to 8.3%. Although the textile supply chain of emerging economies such as Vietnam continued to recover, it was affected by such risk factors as weak external demand, tighter credit conditions and rising financing costs, The textile and clothing trade performance of various countries has been differentiated.

　　 Vietnam?

Vietnam's textile and clothing trade volume declined significantly. According to Vietnamese customs data, Vietnam's exports of yarn, other textiles and clothing to the world from January to May totaled US $14.34 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%. Among them, the export amount of yarn was 1.69 billion US dollars, with the export volume of 678000 tons, down 28.8% and 6.2% respectively year on year; The total export amount of other textiles and clothing was 12.65 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%. Affected by insufficient terminal demand, Vietnam's import demand for textile raw materials and finished products fell significantly. From January to May, Vietnam imported a total of 7.37 billion dollars of cotton, yarn and fabric from the world, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. Among them, the import value of cotton, yarn and fabric was US $1.16 billion, US $880 million and US $5.33 billion respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 25.4%, 24.6% and 19.6% respectively.

Figure 1: Cumulative year-on-year growth of Vietnam's textile and clothing exports

Data source: Vietnam Customs

Bangladesh's garment export maintained a rapid growth. According to the data of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh exported textile products and all kinds of clothing to the world from January to March, amounting to 11.78 billion US dollars, up 22.7% year on year, but the growth rate slowed down by 23.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the export value of textile products was about 270 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%; The amount of clothing exports was about 11.51 billion US dollars, up 24.8% year on year. Under the influence of the decline in export orders, Bangladesh's import demand for yarn, fabric and other supporting products fell back. From January to March, the amount of raw cotton and various textile fabrics imported from the world was about $730 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.3%, and the growth rate dropped 57.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the import volume of raw cotton, which accounted for more than 90% of the total import volume, significantly decreased by 32.6% year on year, which was the main reason for the decrease of Bangladesh's import volume.

Figure 2: Monthly YoY Growth of Export Amount of Bangladesh Textile and Clothing Products

Data source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

　　 India

Affected by the global economic slowdown and declining demand, the export scale of India's major textile and clothing products has shrunk to varying degrees. Since the second half of 2022, with the weakening of terminal demand and the rising of overseas retail inventory, India's textile and clothing export pressure to the United States and Europe and other developed economies has continued to emerge. According to statistics, India's textile and clothing exports to the United States and the European Union in the second half of 2022 have decreased by 23.9% and 24.5% respectively year on year. Since this year, India's textile and clothing exports have continued to decline. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of India, India's exports of various yarns, fabrics, finished products and clothing to the world from January to May totaled US $14.12 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. Among them, the export value of cotton textiles and hemp products declined significantly, with the export value from January to May being 4.58 billion US dollars and 160 million US dollars, down 26.1% and 31.3% year on year respectively; The export volume of clothing, carpets and chemical fiber textiles decreased by 13.7%, 22.2% and 13.9% year on year respectively. In the just ended fiscal year 2022-23 (April 2022~March 2023), India's total export of textile and clothing products to the world was US $33.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, of which the export amount of cotton textiles was only US $10.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%; The scale of clothing export was relatively stable, with the export amount increasing slightly by 1.1% year on year.

Figure 3: Cumulative year-on-year growth of export amount of India's main textile and clothing products

Source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce of India

　　 turkey

Turkey's textile and clothing exports have shrunk. Since this year, the Turkish economy has achieved good growth supported by the rapid recovery of the service industry. However, due to the high inflation pressure and the complicated geopolitical situation, the prices of raw materials and end products have risen, the prosperity of industrial production has remained low, and the volatility of the export environment with Russia, Iraq and other major trading partners has increased, so the export of textiles and clothing is under pressure. According to the Turkish Statistics Bureau, Turkey's textile and clothing exports to the world from January to May totaled US $13.59 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. Among them, the export value of yarn, fabric and finished goods was 5.52 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%; The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was US $8.07 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%.

(Source: Niu Shuangxin, China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute)