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Commodity Prices Are Expected To Phase Up In September.

2011/9/2 8:39:00 51

In August, it was downgraded by the US debt rating.

European debt crisis

A series of systemic risks such as deterioration, international commodity prices sharply dropped, the market is sad.

However, we believe that, although the August commodity market is rather bleak, it does not rule out the possibility of phasing up commodity prices in September.

First of all, the early fall is mainly due to overseas factors.

Market sentiment

Economic growth

prospect

Pessimism and panic in the capital market have become the drivers of systemic risk.

With the evolution of the situation, especially after the downgrade of the US debt, the fact that the yield of the US bond did not rise or fall has greatly appeased the market sentiment.

Data show that as of August 25th, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the yields of 2 -, 5 - and 10 - year treasury bonds fell to 0.22%, 0.98% and 2.23% respectively, indicating that investors' demand for us debt was still strong.

According to the latest data of J.P. Morgan securities, the current ratio of US debt holdings to neutral investors is 85%, indicating that investors did not expect large-scale sell-off after the downgrade of the US debt market. Nearly 85% of investors maintained the same positions as the established benchmark.

The US dollar's position as a currency anchor and the risk avoiding function of US debt are not affected by the downgrade of the US debt.

Second, a series of recent data is also corroborated.

Endogenous economic growth

Not yet destroyed.

It is true that from the perspective of national economic data, the global economy, which experienced the 2008 financial crisis, did not anticipate a vigorous recovery. However, we do not think that the economy has entered a "recession". At least, the data do not support the recession.

As the largest economy, the United States has no "deterioration" in terms of consumption, real estate or employment data.

Although monthly data may fluctuate, it does not affect the "mild recovery" of the US economy.

In the second quarter of 2011, the annualized growth rate of GDP in the 1% quarter of the year was 1%, while the August consumer confidence index ended at 55.7.

As far as Europe is concerned, the European debt problem is temporary.

The two largest economies in Europe, Germany and France, though the GDP data have not reached the expected level, the trend of GDP is the worst period since 2008, even though the data have been repeated, but the trend of recovery has not changed. In addition, employment and industrial production data also do not support the economic recession.

Third, QE3 is expected to heat up.

Though in

Global central bank

Bernanke did not respond explicitly to QE3 at the annual meeting, but he said FOMC would assess the policy of releasing Matsushita monetary policy in September and extend the September FOMC conference to two days, which undoubtedly gave the market unlimited reverie.

Because precisely at last year's global central bank annual meeting, Bernanke has set the stage for the second round of quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve, and launched QE2 in two months. Bernanke's move this year may be "the same way."

In fact, the QE3 has been quietly carried out. For example, the Federal Reserve recently announced that it will maintain a lower benchmark interest rate before 2013, maturity of bonds and Reinvestment to maintain the scale of the balance sheet.

Fourth, the market has a rebound demand after technological crash.

From August 1st to August 10th, less than ten trading days, international crude oil futures fell nearly 20%, LME copper futures fell about 12%, and Shanghai copper futures contracts also fell 16%.

Such a sharp fall has been rare since 2008.

As mentioned earlier, as the market sentiment has been appeased, the technical rebound has become increasingly intense. In recent trading days, the rebound of LME copper as a representative has also stabilized.

Therefore, from the above four aspects, the latter part of the bulk.

commodity price

Phased boost is expected.

But we should soberly realize that in the long run, the slow recovery of the economic recovery and the trouble of the European debt crisis still bring great uncertainty to the future market structure.

The above four factors jointly promote the phased rebound is not sustainable in time. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to shorting risk in late September.