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09 Globalization And Growth Capability Of China'S Market

2009/1/17 9:30:00 17

The Chinese market in 2009 will be a more globalized market and a regional market with the most growth capability.

　　危机突来

In 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply lowered the forecast of global economic growth in 2009, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the two time in a row. The Bank of England also cut interest rates sharply to stimulate the recession in the British economy. The New York market index crude oil futures price fell to below 50 U.S. dollars. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment relief for the first time in sixteenth weeks was over 400 thousand, reaching the highest level in 25 years.

Since September 2008, a number of business friends have asked me how to face the financial tsunami.

From the point of view of the market, great changes have taken place, and the changes are coming so fast that we hardly have time to make adjustments.

　　金融危机下的三个基本判断

The increasingly depressed market environment has made us feel a little discouraged. But if the environment becomes a condition, it may not be the environment but the adjustment of the enterprises themselves.

So the key is how to adapt to changes in the environment and how to make suitable strategic arrangements.

In the face of this crisis, how to understand and judge is the question we need to think about.

From a macro level, the crisis has indeed affected the pace of global development. The natural growth that we are accustomed to now no longer exists. More changes have led to confusion for the future. However, no matter why this crisis arises or whether the crisis will last for many years, we can help us make a clear judgement on the basic level of crisis.

　　第一个基本判断是审慎

Before the crisis, the world, especially China, has experienced 30 years of rapid growth. Under the sustained growth environment, enterprises are also keeping up with the rapid growth of the environment.

It can be said that in the 30 years of development, most of China's enterprises have gained the opportunity to grow, from coastal areas to the mainland, from cities to towns, and flourishing markets have nurtured and flourished enterprises.

It is because of this, most of China's enterprises have become accustomed to the high growth state, have been used to rely on continuous investment in exchange for growth performance, more accustomed to the way to stimulate growth by investment.

But when the crisis comes, all resources need to be used effectively. What we need to pay more attention to is that the future is no longer a fast growing economic environment. There are also different changes in the market. Therefore, enterprises need to treat the changing environment cautiously. We need to treat the resources carefully, and more importantly, prudently deal with the expectation of growth.

The second basic judgement is rational consumption.

From the perspective of consumption, the biggest change is to enter the era of rational consumption.

Because of long-term prosperity and growth, consumption has three characteristics: Advanced consumption, investment consumption and explicit consumption.

Credit card is a typical example of advanced consumption. The consumption habit formed by credit card makes many people consume ahead of time, not on the basis of personal consumption ability.

The real estate market is a typical example of investment and consumption. Originally, the purchase of a house should first be a requirement of residence. However, because people's psychological expectations are different, the real estate market is mainly based on investment and consumption.

The high price of housing is largely due to the fact that people buy the house as an investment rather than a residential choice. As an investment, the price of the house will naturally rise.

The consumption of cars and luxury goods is a typical example of explicit consumption. Most of us can not afford to consume such extravagant products because of the structure of our wages and expenses of daily living. We should not buy such a large volume of cars and so high displacement cars. But strangely, in the Chinese market, it does show the characteristics of luxury consumption. The SUV automobile market, which has been declining for many years in the United States, is growing in China. Its fundamental reason is the explicit consumption requirement.

Whether advanced consumption, investment consumption or explicit consumption will turn to rational consumption when the economic crisis is coming, such a change will inevitably lead to a change in the market structure.

　　第三个基本判断是保持增长

This time the economic crisis is very different from the past. The United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, India, China and so on, all countries and all agencies are working hard to do one thing, that is, "maintain growth", all the central banks and financial institutions are working together to save the market.

Although enterprises have encountered unprecedented impact, governments have also started an unprecedented rescue operation.

The United States has launched a series of rescue plans. The European Union is no exception. The Chinese government has used huge investment to stimulate the growth of the whole economy. The purpose is to maintain economic growth.

In the Asian financial crisis of 1990s, every country adopted a way of self-help, but this time, all countries are discussing how to work together to save the crisis. No country can be alone and no country can be spared. Precisely because of this, maintaining growth in the face of a crisis is the goal pursued by all.

The three key words of "prudence", "rational consumption" and "maintaining growth" are my basic judgments on today's environment. These three basic judgements may help us to understand the environment under the financial crisis and help everyone understand 2009.